Inflation Report (Consumer Price Index)
Based on Year on Year Measurement
Month / Year ----- Inflation
September 2008 ----- 12.14 %
August 2008 ----- 11.85 %
July 2008 ----- 11.90 %
June 2008 ----- 11.03 %
May 2008 ----- 10.38 %
April 2008 ----- 8.96 %
March 2008 ----- 8.17 %
February 2008 ----- 7.40 %
January 2008 ----- 7.36 %
December 2007 ----- 6.59 %
November 2007 ----- 6.71 %
October 2007 ----- 6.88 %
Source: www.bi.go.id
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Indonesia raises key interest rate as inflation gains
Indonesia's central bank raised its policy rate to slow inflation and boost the rupiah after the nation's stock index plunged 10 percent yesterday amid a global credit crisis.
Bank Indonesia Governor Boediono and his seven colleagues raised the BI Rate to 9.5 percent today, from 9.25 percent. Fourteen of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast today's move, with five expecting no change.
Indonesia refrained from joining Australia, which cut rates today by the most since a recession in 1992, China and Taiwan in reducing borrowing costs after inflation accelerated last month to a two-year high. Still, today's increase may be the last this year as the central bank shifts its focus to supporting growth, said Helmi Arman at PT Bank Danamon Indonesia.
``They must be careful not to overdo'' rate increases because it could affect growth, said Arman, based in Jakarta. ``At 9.5 percent there will already be a quite thick spread over inflation expectations.''
A benchmark rate of 9.5 percent would be ``adequate'' to keep price gains between 6.5 percent and 7.5 percent next year, Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said in an interview on Aug. 8. Today's decision marked the sixth straight increase in the policy rate by Bank Indonesia.
``The move to increase the rate is consistent with our monetary-policy strategy,'' Boediono said at a briefing in Jakarta. ``The policy to stabilize the rupiah is directed toward avoiding excessive fluctuation.''
Rupiah Declines
The rupiah fell 0.2 percent to 9,595 against the dollar at 12:01 p.m. in Jakarta, extending yesterday's 1.5 percent decline. The currency has dropped 2.3 percent in the past month, increasing the cost of importing fuel, soybean and wheat.
``The need to support the rupiah should help Bank Indonesia justify its decision to raise the rate,'' said Destry Damayanti, chief economist at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta.
Consumer prices rose 12.1 percent from a year earlier last month, after gaining 11.85 percent in August.
``We expect inflation to remain above 11 percent through January, and for that reason,'' the central bank was expected to raise the rate, Michael Spencer, chief Asia economist at Deutsche Bank AG, said in a note to investors. ``Slowing growth and, eventually, falling inflation should see the central bank cutting rates in the second half of 2009.''
Accelerating inflation and a rout in commodity stocks led to the biggest decline in the benchmark stock index yesterday since the 2002 Bali bombings.
Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono yesterday said his government seeks to keep economic growth at 6 percent and will remain alert amid the credit-crisis ``tsunami,'' which started in the U.S.
Source: bloomberg.com
Publication date: 10/8/2008
Bank Indonesia Governor Boediono and his seven colleagues raised the BI Rate to 9.5 percent today, from 9.25 percent. Fourteen of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast today's move, with five expecting no change.
Indonesia refrained from joining Australia, which cut rates today by the most since a recession in 1992, China and Taiwan in reducing borrowing costs after inflation accelerated last month to a two-year high. Still, today's increase may be the last this year as the central bank shifts its focus to supporting growth, said Helmi Arman at PT Bank Danamon Indonesia.
``They must be careful not to overdo'' rate increases because it could affect growth, said Arman, based in Jakarta. ``At 9.5 percent there will already be a quite thick spread over inflation expectations.''
A benchmark rate of 9.5 percent would be ``adequate'' to keep price gains between 6.5 percent and 7.5 percent next year, Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said in an interview on Aug. 8. Today's decision marked the sixth straight increase in the policy rate by Bank Indonesia.
``The move to increase the rate is consistent with our monetary-policy strategy,'' Boediono said at a briefing in Jakarta. ``The policy to stabilize the rupiah is directed toward avoiding excessive fluctuation.''
Rupiah Declines
The rupiah fell 0.2 percent to 9,595 against the dollar at 12:01 p.m. in Jakarta, extending yesterday's 1.5 percent decline. The currency has dropped 2.3 percent in the past month, increasing the cost of importing fuel, soybean and wheat.
``The need to support the rupiah should help Bank Indonesia justify its decision to raise the rate,'' said Destry Damayanti, chief economist at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta.
Consumer prices rose 12.1 percent from a year earlier last month, after gaining 11.85 percent in August.
``We expect inflation to remain above 11 percent through January, and for that reason,'' the central bank was expected to raise the rate, Michael Spencer, chief Asia economist at Deutsche Bank AG, said in a note to investors. ``Slowing growth and, eventually, falling inflation should see the central bank cutting rates in the second half of 2009.''
Accelerating inflation and a rout in commodity stocks led to the biggest decline in the benchmark stock index yesterday since the 2002 Bali bombings.
Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono yesterday said his government seeks to keep economic growth at 6 percent and will remain alert amid the credit-crisis ``tsunami,'' which started in the U.S.
Source: bloomberg.com
Publication date: 10/8/2008
BI raises rate to 9.50% on inflation concerns
Bank Indonesia (BI) has raised its benchmark rate for the sixth time this year, from to 9.25 to 9.5 percent, amid inflationary pressures and global economy concerns. The central bank governor Boediono told reporters Tuesday that the key rate was increased to suit high inflation and to anticipate the global financial crisis.
The country's annual price inflation spiked to its highest level in September, rising by 12.14 percent compared to a year earlier.The Central Statistics Agency reported on Monday that monthly inflation reached 0.97 percent in September, up significantly from 0.51 percent in August. (dre)
Source : The Jakarta Post, Oktober 7 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Ramadan propels September inflation
Inflation in September reached higher-than-forecast 0.97 percent, with consumer prices pushed up by high demand during the fasting month and ahead of the Idul Fitri holiday, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported Monday.
The 0.97 percent monthly inflation was above the government's expectation of 0.8 percent.
"(The inflation rate in) September was the highest of the past three Ramadan festivals, as the fasting month fell throughout September," said BPS deputy chairman for distribution statistics Ali Rosidi.
Last year, the fasting month started mid-September and ended mid-October. In 2006, it began late September and ended late October.
On a yearly basis, inflation in September rose to 12.14 percent from a year earlier, up from 11.85 percent in August, BPS reported.
Between January and September, inflation reached 10.47 percent.
The government projects inflation will reach 11.4 percent by the end of 2008, while the central bank estimates between 11.5 percent and 12.5 percent.
All 66 cities surveyed by BPS experienced inflation in September, based on the BPS data. Tarakan in East Kalimantan had the highest rate at 2.8 percent while Manado in North Sulawesi had the lowest at 0.03 percent.
Inflation nationwide was mostly contributed by the rising prices of staple foods, housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels. The prices of staple foods rose 1.9 percent, while the prices of housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels rose 1.22 percent.
Ali said inflation would likely decrease in October and November, but probably increase in December as consumer spending rose again for Christmas and the New Year celebrations.
Last year, inflation reached 0.8 percent in September, 0.79 percent in October, 0.18 percent in November and 1.1 percent in December, according to BPS.
Standard Chartered Bank senior economist Fauzi Ichsan said inflation would reach about 12 percent by the end of 2008.
With the high September inflation and the weakening rate of the rupiah against the dollar, Fauzi predicted the central bank would raise "its interest rate by 25 basis points" on Tuesday, bringing the rate to 9.5 percent.
He said a rise in the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate would bring the rupiah closer to Rp 9,500 to the US dollar, which would reduce imported inflation.
"If the rupiah exceeds the level of 9,500 (per dollar), it may quickly snowball to reach 10,000 (per dollar)."
On Monday, the rupiah slipped 1.5 percent to 9,575 per dollar, Bloomberg reported.
BI deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said market players should not panic seeing the decline in the rupiah. "BI will always be in the market."
Aditya Suharmoko, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The 0.97 percent monthly inflation was above the government's expectation of 0.8 percent.
"(The inflation rate in) September was the highest of the past three Ramadan festivals, as the fasting month fell throughout September," said BPS deputy chairman for distribution statistics Ali Rosidi.
Last year, the fasting month started mid-September and ended mid-October. In 2006, it began late September and ended late October.
On a yearly basis, inflation in September rose to 12.14 percent from a year earlier, up from 11.85 percent in August, BPS reported.
Between January and September, inflation reached 10.47 percent.
The government projects inflation will reach 11.4 percent by the end of 2008, while the central bank estimates between 11.5 percent and 12.5 percent.
All 66 cities surveyed by BPS experienced inflation in September, based on the BPS data. Tarakan in East Kalimantan had the highest rate at 2.8 percent while Manado in North Sulawesi had the lowest at 0.03 percent.
Inflation nationwide was mostly contributed by the rising prices of staple foods, housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels. The prices of staple foods rose 1.9 percent, while the prices of housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels rose 1.22 percent.
Ali said inflation would likely decrease in October and November, but probably increase in December as consumer spending rose again for Christmas and the New Year celebrations.
Last year, inflation reached 0.8 percent in September, 0.79 percent in October, 0.18 percent in November and 1.1 percent in December, according to BPS.
Standard Chartered Bank senior economist Fauzi Ichsan said inflation would reach about 12 percent by the end of 2008.
With the high September inflation and the weakening rate of the rupiah against the dollar, Fauzi predicted the central bank would raise "its interest rate by 25 basis points" on Tuesday, bringing the rate to 9.5 percent.
He said a rise in the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate would bring the rupiah closer to Rp 9,500 to the US dollar, which would reduce imported inflation.
"If the rupiah exceeds the level of 9,500 (per dollar), it may quickly snowball to reach 10,000 (per dollar)."
On Monday, the rupiah slipped 1.5 percent to 9,575 per dollar, Bloomberg reported.
BI deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said market players should not panic seeing the decline in the rupiah. "BI will always be in the market."
Aditya Suharmoko, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Indonesia's inflation accelerates to two-year high
Indonesia's inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two years in September, sustaining pressure on the central bank to increase borrowing costs. The rupiah and the benchmark stock index fell. Consumer prices rose 12.14 percent from a year earlier last month, after gaining 11.85 percent in August, the Central Statistics Bureau said in Jakarta today. That compares with the 11.96 percent median forecast of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Prices rose in September as the nation with the world's largest Muslim population prepared to celebrate the end of the fasting month of Ramadan. That may prevent Bank Indonesia from joining other Asian central banks in reversing interest-rate increases even after the government said yesterday the global credit crisis may slow exports and affect growth.
"They are not in a position to cut interest rates but I think they will change their stance toward the end of the year,'' said Tomo Kinoshita, chief economist for Asia outside Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc. "Domestic demand has really been robust in Indonesia, which has not been seen in other parts of Asia.'' Indonesia's central bank may raise its policy rate tomorrow to 9.5 percent, the highest in 1 1/2 years, according to 14 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The rupiah's decline may also prompt the central bank to increase its policy rate, said Sim Moh Siong, a strategist with Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. The currency slipped 1.5 percent to 9,575 against the dollar at 3:57 p.m. in Jakarta.
Stocks Fall
The benchmark stock index extended its loss after the inflation data was released. The measure plunged 10 percent in Jakarta today.
``Further gradual rate hikes for the rest of the year remain highly possible to keep inflation in check and to stabilize the rupiah,'' Sim said.
Still, Bank Indonesia and the government are ``increasing cooperation'' to limit the impact of the global liquidity squeeze on Southeast Asia's biggest economy, Governor Boediono said yesterday in Jakarta. The credit shortage may last as long as a year, he said.
Consumer prices rose 0.97 percent in September from a month earlier, the statistics agency said. Prices increase during Ramadan as Indonesian Muslims travel more to visit relatives and spend more money to prepare feasts for Id-ul-Fitr, which marks the end of the fasting month.
Fuel Prices
Two price increases in liquefied petroleum gas also led to an acceleration of inflation. PT Pertamina, the state oil company, raised the price of LPG sold in 12-kilogram (26-pound) canisters used by non-low-income households by 24 percent in July and 9.5 percent in August.
Gains in processed food-prices accelerated to 11.2 percent last month, while housing costs climbed 11 percent.
Indonesia's exports rose 30.3 percent to $12.5 billion in August, the statistics bureau said today. Imports from outside trade zones increased 45.4 percent to $10.1 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $2.45 billion.
Source: bloomberg.com
Publication date: 10/6/2008
Prices rose in September as the nation with the world's largest Muslim population prepared to celebrate the end of the fasting month of Ramadan. That may prevent Bank Indonesia from joining other Asian central banks in reversing interest-rate increases even after the government said yesterday the global credit crisis may slow exports and affect growth.
"They are not in a position to cut interest rates but I think they will change their stance toward the end of the year,'' said Tomo Kinoshita, chief economist for Asia outside Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc. "Domestic demand has really been robust in Indonesia, which has not been seen in other parts of Asia.'' Indonesia's central bank may raise its policy rate tomorrow to 9.5 percent, the highest in 1 1/2 years, according to 14 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The rupiah's decline may also prompt the central bank to increase its policy rate, said Sim Moh Siong, a strategist with Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. The currency slipped 1.5 percent to 9,575 against the dollar at 3:57 p.m. in Jakarta.
Stocks Fall
The benchmark stock index extended its loss after the inflation data was released. The measure plunged 10 percent in Jakarta today.
``Further gradual rate hikes for the rest of the year remain highly possible to keep inflation in check and to stabilize the rupiah,'' Sim said.
Still, Bank Indonesia and the government are ``increasing cooperation'' to limit the impact of the global liquidity squeeze on Southeast Asia's biggest economy, Governor Boediono said yesterday in Jakarta. The credit shortage may last as long as a year, he said.
Consumer prices rose 0.97 percent in September from a month earlier, the statistics agency said. Prices increase during Ramadan as Indonesian Muslims travel more to visit relatives and spend more money to prepare feasts for Id-ul-Fitr, which marks the end of the fasting month.
Fuel Prices
Two price increases in liquefied petroleum gas also led to an acceleration of inflation. PT Pertamina, the state oil company, raised the price of LPG sold in 12-kilogram (26-pound) canisters used by non-low-income households by 24 percent in July and 9.5 percent in August.
Gains in processed food-prices accelerated to 11.2 percent last month, while housing costs climbed 11 percent.
Indonesia's exports rose 30.3 percent to $12.5 billion in August, the statistics bureau said today. Imports from outside trade zones increased 45.4 percent to $10.1 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $2.45 billion.
Source: bloomberg.com
Publication date: 10/6/2008
Indonesian inflation increases in September
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Indonesia's inflation rate rose a faster-than-expected 12.14 percent in September against a year ago, the Central Statistics Agency was quoted by AFP as saying Monday.
Analysts had forecast an annual rate of 11.99 percent, but said prices were driven higher by the cost of food and housing in the Ramadan festive season.
The central bank is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points on Tuesday to 9.50 percent in a bid to quell inflation, analysts said. (*)
Analysts had forecast an annual rate of 11.99 percent, but said prices were driven higher by the cost of food and housing in the Ramadan festive season.
The central bank is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points on Tuesday to 9.50 percent in a bid to quell inflation, analysts said. (*)
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